Research methodologies and tools

Defense issues
Research methodologies and tools
Defense issues
Research methodologies and tools

Climate change and hotspots of conflict around the world

This note on the consequences of climate change on conflict hotspots analyses four regions: Central, West and East Africa ; the Middle East and North Africa, and Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific ; Latin America. These hotspots were determined on the basis of a climate-conflict indicator created by the Defence and Climate Observatory (see map), which highlighted their particular vulnerability to an exacerbation of conflict due to climate change. Each of the regions is studied through a general analysis of climate-conflict issues on a regional scale; a focus point on a state or sub-region and a foresight scenario on a state or sub-region.  

7 June 2023
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

CEMC: Climate change evaluation Methodology for military camps

Climate change has been mentioned for several years in armed forces strategic documents, whether it be in documents from the French ministry for the Armed Forces1 or foreign ministries of Defense. Often these changes are seen as a threat to national and international security or as a risk/threat multiplier, especially due to the increased intensity and frequency of extreme and slow-onset climate events and their consequences on the strategic landscape.

29 September 2021
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues

South America

This eleventh study report by the Defence and Climate Observatory presents the elements collected on five South American countries: Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Argentina. It is organised around five country sheets, headed by a regional analysis highlighting vulnerabilities and cross-cutting challenges, as well as commonalities and differences. An appendix is dedicated to the analysis of the Antarctic continent, a continent that constitutes an important geopolitical issue in the region.

8 October 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

Climate change and defense issues in the Western Indian Ocean

Following President Macron's visit in May 2018, France and Australia have committed to mapping the environmental risks of the Indian Ocean in order to understand and anticipate the consequences of climate change, particularly in terms of security and defence.

15 July 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues

Environmental security in the eastern Indian Ocean, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. A risk mapping approach

This report arises from a Track 1.5 Australia–France–India strategic dialogue held in New Delhi in January 2018. It builds on a French proposal introduced at that meeting. In this study, Australian and French teams did a joint risk-mapping exercise for the area south of latitude 60°S.

21 June 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues

South Pacific

This eighth report of the Observatory presents the elements collected on Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. The five sheets propose, as far as possible, elements of assessment of climate vulnerability in prospective horizons, reflections on their possible translation into security terms, a brief analysis of public policies on climate, an evaluation of the role of the armed forces and civil security forces in the management of natural disasters, as well as crisis scenarios (trend and breakdown).

28 February 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

North Africa foresight

The first part of this report proposes a regional analysis of the main vulnerabilities to climate change, the potential breaking points, as well as the challenges and state responses. It then provides a country-by-country analysis of Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco.

15 January 2018
Research methodologies and tools
Defense issues
Research methodologies and tools
Defense issues

Scientific data and climate scenarios

The objective of this report is to present climate change and its impacts according to two warming scenarios: the first is based on an increase in average surface temperature of 2°C by 2100, which is the most optimistic scenario established by the IPCC (RCP2.6); the second is based on an increase of 5°C by 2100, which is almost the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5). The physical, socio-economic and health impacts of these two scenarios are assessed for the time horizons 2030 and 2050.

31 May 2017
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

Retrospective and crisis typology

To what extent do climatic or environmental factors play a role in triggering crises or even conflicts? This question still has no clear answer. Research has produced a number of reports examining the links between climate change and the outbreak of violence, but without clearly establishing the existence and nature of causal links. This report aims to contribute to this debate.

28 February 2017