Publications

Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools

From a Climate Tool to an Instrument of Power: The Geostrategic and Defence Implications of Solar Geoengineering

This report builds on the 2023 report of the Defence and Climate Observatory on the geostrategic and defence issues of SRM methods (De Guglielmo et al., 2023). Like this previous report, it seeks to broaden the analysis of SRM beyond its geophysical effects. It therefore looks beyond SRM’s climate objectives to explore how this sector raises geopolitical issues shaped by dependencies and struggles for influence. By focusing on an SRM method with global, transboundary and uncertain effects, this report also examines its potential to become integrated into security logics and power dynamics.

15 October 2026
Defense issues
Human security issues
Defense issues
Human security issues

Climate Disinformation and Information Warfare : State Interference and Security Implications

Building on the work carried out by the Defence and Climate Observatory on the integration of climate change into the dynamics of hybrid warfare, this paper aims to analyse the exploitation of climate information by foreign powers, using a multi-factor approach. From this perspective, it incorporates climate issues as a new target of information warfare. Thus, following a presentation of the methodological framework for the climate disinformation–information warfare nexus (I), this paper provides an overview of the main state actors involved in climate disinformation targeting Europe, notably Russia and the United States, as well as their interactions with non-state actors (II). The analysis then examines the security implications of climate disinformation (III). Based on these findings, the paper develops three forward-looking scenarios, accompanied by recommendations for the Ministry of the Armed Forces (IV).

18 May 2026
Defense issues
Human security issues
Defense issues
Human security issues

Amazonian Tipping Point: Security Implications of Climate Change and Deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest

This note is part of a series produced by the Defence and Climate Observatory dedicated to the tipping points identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2018; Collins et al., 2019). Following an initial note on the slowing—even the potential collapse—of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the present note now turns to the Amazon rainforest and its tipping point.

22 January 2026
Defense issues
Defense issues

The Strategic Use of Climate Vulnerabilities in Contemporary Conflicts: Modalities and Feedback Effects

This note from the Defence and Climate Observatory proposes to move beyond the dominant debates on the climate-conflict nexus focusing on the role of climate change as a direct or indirect factor in conflicts, by concentrating on the interaction between climate issues and conflict dynamics. It analyses case studies of contemporary conflicts to understand how climate vulnerabilities are used as a strategic lever in conflict contexts, within a continuum of instrumentalisation-arsenalisation (I), the environmental damage caused by conflicts, also instrumentalised by the belligerents, and their security and strategic implications (II). Finally, the note proposes three forward-looking scenarios, accompanied by strategic recommendations for the French Ministry of the Armed Forces (III).  

19 November 2025
Defense issues
Human security issues
Defense issues
Human security issues

Security and Defence Implications of Climate Tipping Points – The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

This note is part of a series of publications by The Defense & Climate Observatory aimed at studying the security and defense implications of climate tipping points established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its aim is to inform political and economic decision-makers about the security and defense implications of a slowdown, or even collapse, of the AMOC.  

5 June 2025

Climate Diplomacy of the Gulf Monarchies: Leverage and Power Tool

This note from Observatoire Défense et Climat examines the climate diplomacy of the Gulf monarchies as a lever of influence and a tool of power. It looks at the Gulf Cooperation Council states' exposure to climate risks and their responses (I), the commitment of these states to global climate multilateralism, highlighting this multilateralism as an area of influence for their climate strategies (II), and the link between climate issues and the foreign policy of the Gulf States on the African continent, highlighting the logics of environmental cooperation as much as influence (III). Finally, on the basis of these analyses, the note proposes three prospective scenarios, accompanied by strategic recommendations for the Ministry of the Armed Forces (IV).

13 May 2025
Defense issues
Human security issues
Defense issues
Human security issues

Security Challenges of Water Stress in Southern Europe

This note assesses how water stress, a growing phenomenon defined by high tension on water resources caused by an imbalance between water supply and demand, can be exacerbated by climate change and human activities, and affect societies in southern Europe and the French armed forces when conducting their missions. This note is divided in three sections: an analysis of the societal consequences of water stress in southern Europe and the potential associated conflicts (I), a study of the operational and organizational challenges that water stress generates for the French armed forces and their European partners (II), and finally, three foresight scenarios to 2050, with recommendations for the Ministry of the Armed Forces (III).

6 November 2024
Human security issues
Human security issues

Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations in Response to Climate-Related Disasters: What Role and Challenges for the French Armed Forces ?

This note analyses climate change impacts on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations carried out by the French armed forces in response to climate-related disasters. It is divided into three parts: climate change impacts on the evolution of HADR operations in France along with the operational and capability consequences for French armed forces (I), followed by an analysis of the use of HADR operations abroad as a lever for military influence and power by nations active in this field such as the United States, China, France, India and Australia (II). Finally, three foresight scenarios for 2050 are suggested along with recommendations for the Ministry of Armed forces (III).

21 June 2024
Defense issues
Defense issues

Solar Geoengineering: Geostrategic and Defence issues

Techniques and their recent developments highlight the prospect of large-scale deployment of solar geoengineering over the coming decades. It therefore seems necessary to explore the security and strategic issues raised by these techniques, which this note sets out to do in four stages: a presentation of the techniques studied and the associated natural and human risks (I); an analysis of the geostrategic and defence issues they raise (II); four hypotheses, and three prospective scenarios narrating the deployment of solar geoengineering techniques by 2050, together with recommendations for the Ministry of Defence (IV).

29 November 2023
Defense issues
Defense issues

China and climate change: a quest for ecological influence and power

This note on China's quest for influence and ecological power in the face of climate change is divided into three parts: the first looks at the use of climate information for political and diplomatic purposes; the second looks at the economic leadership that China is seeking to develop in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation; and finally, the third looks at China's use of HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response) operations as a tool for influence and military power.

15 November 2023
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