Publications

Climate Diplomacy of the Gulf Monarchies: Leverage and Power Tool

This note from Observatoire Défense et Climat examines the climate diplomacy of the Gulf monarchies as a lever of influence and a tool of power. It looks at the Gulf Cooperation Council states' exposure to climate risks and their responses (I), the commitment of these states to global climate multilateralism, highlighting this multilateralism as an area of influence for their climate strategies (II), and the link between climate issues and the foreign policy of the Gulf States on the African continent, highlighting the logics of environmental cooperation as much as influence (III). Finally, on the basis of these analyses, the note proposes three prospective scenarios, accompanied by strategic recommendations for the Ministry of the Armed Forces (IV).

13 May 2025
Defense issues
Human security issues
Defense issues
Human security issues

Security Challenges of Water Stress in Southern Europe

This note assesses how water stress, a growing phenomenon defined by high tension on water resources caused by an imbalance between water supply and demand, can be exacerbated by climate change and human activities, and affect societies in southern Europe and the French armed forces when conducting their missions. This note is divided in three sections: an analysis of the societal consequences of water stress in southern Europe and the potential associated conflicts (I), a study of the operational and organizational challenges that water stress generates for the French armed forces and their European partners (II), and finally, three foresight scenarios to 2050, with recommendations for the Ministry of the Armed Forces (III).

6 November 2024
Human security issues
Human security issues

Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations in Response to Climate-Related Disasters: What Role and Challenges for the French Armed Forces ?

This note analyses climate change impacts on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations carried out by the French armed forces in response to climate-related disasters. It is divided into three parts: climate change impacts on the evolution of HADR operations in France along with the operational and capability consequences for French armed forces (I), followed by an analysis of the use of HADR operations abroad as a lever for military influence and power by nations active in this field such as the United States, China, France, India and Australia (II). Finally, three foresight scenarios for 2050 are suggested along with recommendations for the Ministry of Armed forces (III).

21 June 2024
Defense issues
Defense issues

Solar Geoengineering: Geostrategic and Defence issues

Techniques and their recent developments highlight the prospect of large-scale deployment of solar geoengineering over the coming decades. It therefore seems necessary to explore the security and strategic issues raised by these techniques, which this note sets out to do in four stages: a presentation of the techniques studied and the associated natural and human risks (I); an analysis of the geostrategic and defence issues they raise (II); four hypotheses, and three prospective scenarios narrating the deployment of solar geoengineering techniques by 2050, together with recommendations for the Ministry of Defence (IV).

29 November 2023
Defense issues
Defense issues

China and climate change: a quest for ecological influence and power

This note on China's quest for influence and ecological power in the face of climate change is divided into three parts: the first looks at the use of climate information for political and diplomatic purposes; the second looks at the economic leadership that China is seeking to develop in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation; and finally, the third looks at China's use of HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response) operations as a tool for influence and military power.

15 November 2023
Defense issues
Research methodologies and tools
Defense issues
Research methodologies and tools

Climate change and hotspots of conflict around the world

This note on the consequences of climate change on conflict hotspots analyses four regions: Central, West and East Africa ; the Middle East and North Africa, and Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific ; Latin America. These hotspots were determined on the basis of a climate-conflict indicator created by the Defence and Climate Observatory (see map), which highlighted their particular vulnerability to an exacerbation of conflict due to climate change. Each of the regions is studied through a general analysis of climate-conflict issues on a regional scale; a focus point on a state or sub-region and a foresight scenario on a state or sub-region.  

7 June 2023
Defense issues
Defense issues

Agricultural resources and climate change: defence and security issues

This brief addresses the security issues related to the impact of climate change on agricultural resources. It is divided into three parts: an analysis of the vulnerability of agricultural resources to climate change; an examination of the strategic and defence issues related to securing them; and an identification of geopolitical and security breakpoints.

26 April 2023
Human security issues
Human security issues

Geopolitical and security implications of Climate vulnerability in the Carribbean Islands

This brief addresses the current and future consequences of climate changes in the insular Caribbean, as well as their geopolitical and security implications. In this perspective, we focus our analysis on the Caribbean arc, traditionally subdivided into two groups: the Greater Antilles, stretching from Cuba in the northwest to Puerto Rico; and the Lesser Antilles, from the Virgin Islands to the islands of Trinidad and Tobago, which border the Venezuelan coastline further south.

9 November 2022
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

CEMC: Climate change evaluation Methodology for military camps

Climate change has been mentioned for several years in armed forces strategic documents, whether it be in documents from the French ministry for the Armed Forces1 or foreign ministries of Defense. Often these changes are seen as a threat to national and international security or as a risk/threat multiplier, especially due to the increased intensity and frequency of extreme and slow-onset climate events and their consequences on the strategic landscape.

29 September 2021
Defense issues
Defense issues

Integration of climate-environmental issues by the armed forces

Whether in terms of anticipating risks or threats to national security, vulnerability of military infrastructure, adaptation of equipment and training to the effects of rising average temperatures or extreme conditions (Arctic), it is clear that the impacts of climate change pose many challenges to the maintenance and implementation of the military effect of armed forces.

23 March 2021
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