Foresight

Human security issues
Human security issues

Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations in Response to Climate-Related Disasters: What Role and Challenges for the French Armed Forces ?

This note analyses climate change impacts on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations carried out by the French armed forces in response to climate-related disasters. It is divided into three parts: climate change impacts on the evolution of HADR operations in France along with the operational and capability consequences for French armed forces (I), followed by an analysis of the use of HADR operations abroad as a lever for military influence and power by nations active in this field such as the United States, China, France, India and Australia (II). Finally, three foresight scenarios for 2050 are suggested along with recommendations for the Ministry of Armed forces (III).

21 June 2024
Defense issues
Defense issues

Solar Geoengineering: Geostrategic and Defence issues

Techniques and their recent developments highlight the prospect of large-scale deployment of solar geoengineering over the coming decades. It therefore seems necessary to explore the security and strategic issues raised by these techniques, which this note sets out to do in four stages: a presentation of the techniques studied and the associated natural and human risks (I); an analysis of the geostrategic and defence issues they raise (II); four hypotheses, and three prospective scenarios narrating the deployment of solar geoengineering techniques by 2050, together with recommendations for the Ministry of Defence (IV).

29 November 2023
Defense issues
Defense issues

Climate Security in the Western Indian Ocean

The Ministry of Armed Forces regularly outsources studies to private research institutes, according to a geographical or sectoral approach, aimed to complement its internal expertise. These contractual relations are part of the development of the prospective approach to defence, which, as underlined by the latest White Paper on Defence and National Security, "must be able to draw on an independent, multidisciplinary, original strategic reflection, integrating academic research as well as the one of specialised institutes".

30 September 2020
Human security issues
Human security issues

Southeast Asia foresight

This thirteenth study report by the Climate and Defense Observatory presents the elements collected on five countries in Southeast Asia: Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. It is organised around five country profiles, headed by a regional analysis highlighting vulnerabilities and cross-cutting challenges, commonalities and differences.

15 May 2020
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues

South America

This eleventh study report by the Defence and Climate Observatory presents the elements collected on five South American countries: Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Argentina. It is organised around five country sheets, headed by a regional analysis highlighting vulnerabilities and cross-cutting challenges, as well as commonalities and differences. An appendix is dedicated to the analysis of the Antarctic continent, a continent that constitutes an important geopolitical issue in the region.

8 October 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues

Western Indian Ocean foresight

This ninth study report by the Defence and Climate Observatory presents the elements collected on the countries of the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC): the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles. It is organised around four country profiles, headed by a regional analysis highlighting vulnerabilities and cross-cutting challenges, commonalities and differences.

31 May 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues

South Pacific

This eighth report of the Observatory presents the elements collected on Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. The five sheets propose, as far as possible, elements of assessment of climate vulnerability in prospective horizons, reflections on their possible translation into security terms, a brief analysis of public policies on climate, an evaluation of the role of the armed forces and civil security forces in the management of natural disasters, as well as crisis scenarios (trend and breakdown).

28 February 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

Sahel foresight

This sixth report of the Observatory presents the elements collected on Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad. The five fact sheets provide elements for assessing climate vulnerability in the future, thoughts on how this might be translated into security terms, a brief analysis of public policies on climate, an assessment of the role of the armed forces and civil security forces in the management of natural disasters, as well as crisis scenarios (trend and breakdown).

15 May 2018
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

East Africa foresight

This fifth report of the Observatory presents the elements collected on Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti and the Central African Republic. The five fact sheets propose, as far as possible, elements for assessing climate vulnerability in the future, reflections on their possible translation into security terms, a brief analysis of public policies in the area of climate, an evaluation of the role of the armed forces and civil security forces in the management of natural disasters, as well as crisis scenarios (trend and breakdown).

15 February 2018
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

North Africa foresight

The first part of this report proposes a regional analysis of the main vulnerabilities to climate change, the potential breaking points, as well as the challenges and state responses. It then provides a country-by-country analysis of Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco.

15 January 2018