Aires Africa

Defense issues
Research methodologies and tools
Defense issues
Research methodologies and tools

Climate change and hotspots of conflict around the world

This note on the consequences of climate change on conflict hotspots analyses four regions: Central, West and East Africa ; the Middle East and North Africa, and Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific ; Latin America. These hotspots were determined on the basis of a climate-conflict indicator created by the Defence and Climate Observatory (see map), which highlighted their particular vulnerability to an exacerbation of conflict due to climate change. Each of the regions is studied through a general analysis of climate-conflict issues on a regional scale; a focus point on a state or sub-region and a foresight scenario on a state or sub-region.  

7 June 2023
Defense issues
Defense issues

Agricultural resources and climate change: defence and security issues

This brief addresses the security issues related to the impact of climate change on agricultural resources. It is divided into three parts: an analysis of the vulnerability of agricultural resources to climate change; an examination of the strategic and defence issues related to securing them; and an identification of geopolitical and security breakpoints.

26 April 2023
Defense issues
Defense issues

Climate Security in the Western Indian Ocean

The Ministry of Armed Forces regularly outsources studies to private research institutes, according to a geographical or sectoral approach, aimed to complement its internal expertise. These contractual relations are part of the development of the prospective approach to defence, which, as underlined by the latest White Paper on Defence and National Security, "must be able to draw on an independent, multidisciplinary, original strategic reflection, integrating academic research as well as the one of specialised institutes".

30 September 2020
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

Climate change and defense issues in the Western Indian Ocean

Following President Macron's visit in May 2018, France and Australia have committed to mapping the environmental risks of the Indian Ocean in order to understand and anticipate the consequences of climate change, particularly in terms of security and defence.

15 July 2019
Human security issues
Human security issues

Impacts of climate change on parking points in Overseas France and abroad – Ivory Coast’s case

Research on the security impacts of climate change has so far focused largely on conflict risks and human security threats. While climate change is known to have a multiplier effect on threats to security and stability, its impact on military infrastructure has received little attention. Yet a large number of military infrastructures are located in areas that will be particularly affected by the impacts of climate change. With the exception of the United States and Australia, very few countries have undertaken an assessment of their military infrastructure, whereas a great many studies exist on the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure.

1 July 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues

Western Indian Ocean foresight

This ninth study report by the Defence and Climate Observatory presents the elements collected on the countries of the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC): the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles. It is organised around four country profiles, headed by a regional analysis highlighting vulnerabilities and cross-cutting challenges, commonalities and differences.

31 May 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

Sahel foresight

This sixth report of the Observatory presents the elements collected on Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad. The five fact sheets provide elements for assessing climate vulnerability in the future, thoughts on how this might be translated into security terms, a brief analysis of public policies on climate, an assessment of the role of the armed forces and civil security forces in the management of natural disasters, as well as crisis scenarios (trend and breakdown).

15 May 2018
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

East Africa foresight

This fifth report of the Observatory presents the elements collected on Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti and the Central African Republic. The five fact sheets propose, as far as possible, elements for assessing climate vulnerability in the future, reflections on their possible translation into security terms, a brief analysis of public policies in the area of climate, an evaluation of the role of the armed forces and civil security forces in the management of natural disasters, as well as crisis scenarios (trend and breakdown).

15 February 2018
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

North Africa foresight

The first part of this report proposes a regional analysis of the main vulnerabilities to climate change, the potential breaking points, as well as the challenges and state responses. It then provides a country-by-country analysis of Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco.

15 January 2018
Human security issues
Human security issues

Sahel foresight

The aim of this study is to understand the extent to which climatic and environmental factors are likely to contribute, in the near future (2030/2050), to the emergence and/or aggravation of tensions, crises and even conflicts in the Sahelo-Saharan strip.

15 September 2017