Defense issues

Human security issues

Amazonian Tipping Point: Security Implications of Climate Change and Deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest

This note is part of a series produced by the Defence and Climate Observatory dedicated to the tipping points identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2018; Collins et al., 2019). Following an initial note on the slowing—even the potential collapse—of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the present note now turns to the Amazon rainforest and its tipping point.

22 January 2026

Defense issues

The Strategic Use of Climate Vulnerabilities in Contemporary Conflicts: Modalities and Feedback Effects

This note from the Defence and Climate Observatory proposes to move beyond the dominant debates on the climate-conflict nexus focusing on the role of climate change as a direct or indirect factor in conflicts, by concentrating on the interaction between climate issues and conflict dynamics. It analyses case studies of contemporary conflicts to understand how climate vulnerabilities are used as a strategic lever in conflict contexts, within a continuum of instrumentalisation-arsenalisation (I), the environmental damage caused by conflicts, also instrumentalised by the belligerents, and their security and strategic implications (II). Finally, the note proposes three forward-looking scenarios, accompanied by strategic recommendations for the French Ministry of the Armed Forces (III).

19 November 2025

Defense issues

Human security issues

Defense issues

Human security issues

Security and Defence Implications of Climate Tipping Points – The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

This note is part of a series of publications by The Defense & Climate Observatory aimed at studying the security and defense implications of climate tipping points established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its aim is to inform political and economic decision-makers about the security and defense implications of a slowdown, or even collapse, of the AMOC.

5 June 2025

Defense issues

Human security issues

Defense issues

Human security issues

Security Challenges of Water Stress in Southern Europe

This note assesses how water stress, a growing phenomenon defined by high tension on water resources caused by an imbalance between water supply and demand, can be exacerbated by climate change and human activities, and affect societies in southern Europe and the French armed forces when conducting their missions. This note is divided in three sections: an analysis of the societal consequences of water stress in southern Europe and the potential associated conflicts (I), a study of the operational and organizational challenges that water stress generates for the French armed forces and their European partners (II), and finally, three foresight scenarios to 2050, with recommendations for the Ministry of the Armed Forces (III).

6 November 2024

Defense issues

Solar Geoengineering: Geostrategic and Defence issues

Techniques and their recent developments highlight the prospect of large-scale deployment of solar geoengineering over the coming decades. It therefore seems necessary to explore the security and strategic issues raised by these techniques, which this note sets out to do in four stages: a presentation of the techniques studied and the associated natural and human risks (I); an analysis of the geostrategic and defence issues they raise (II); four hypotheses, and three prospective scenarios narrating the deployment of solar geoengineering techniques by 2050, together with recommendations for the Ministry of Defence (IV).

29 November 2023

Defense issues

China and climate change: a quest for ecological influence and power

This note on China's quest for influence and ecological power in the face of climate change is divided into three parts: the first looks at the use of climate information for political and diplomatic purposes; the second looks at the economic leadership that China is seeking to develop in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation; and finally, the third looks at China's use of HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response) operations as a tool for influence and military power.

15 November 2023

Defense issues

Research methodologies and tools

Defense issues

Research methodologies and tools

Climate change and hotspots of conflict around the world

This note on the consequences of climate change on conflict hotspots analyses four regions: Central, West and East Africa ; the Middle East and North Africa, and Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific ; Latin America. These hotspots were determined on the basis of a climate-conflict indicator created by the Defence and Climate Observatory (see map), which highlighted their particular vulnerability to an exacerbation of conflict due to climate change. Each of the regions is studied through a general analysis of climate-conflict issues on a regional scale; a focus point on a state or sub-region and a foresight scenario on a state or sub-region.

7 June 2023

Defense issues

Agricultural resources and climate change: defence and security issues

This brief addresses the security issues related to the impact of climate change on agricultural resources. It is divided into three parts: an analysis of the vulnerability of agricultural resources to climate change; an examination of the strategic and defence issues related to securing them; and an identification of geopolitical and security breakpoints.

26 April 2023

Defense issues

Integration of climate-environmental issues by the armed forces

Whether in terms of anticipating risks or threats to national security, vulnerability of military infrastructure, adaptation of equipment and training to the effects of rising average temperatures or extreme conditions (Arctic), it is clear that the impacts of climate change pose many challenges to the maintenance and implementation of the military effect of armed forces.

23 March 2021

Defense issues

Climate Security in the Western Indian Ocean

The Ministry of Armed Forces regularly outsources studies to private research institutes, according to a geographical or sectoral approach, aimed to complement its internal expertise. These contractual relations are part of the development of the prospective approach to defence, which, as underlined by the latest White Paper on Defence and National Security, "must be able to draw on an independent, multidisciplinary, original strategic reflection, integrating academic research as well as the one of specialised institutes".

30 September 2020