Climate

Defense issues
Human security issues
Defense issues
Human security issues

Security Challenges of Water Stress in Southern Europe

This note assesses how water stress, a growing phenomenon defined by high tension on water resources caused by an imbalance between water supply and demand, can be exacerbated by climate change and human activities, and affect societies in southern Europe and the French armed forces when conducting their missions. This note is divided in three sections: an analysis of the societal consequences of water stress in southern Europe and the potential associated conflicts (I), a study of the operational and organizational challenges that water stress generates for the French armed forces and their European partners (II), and finally, three foresight scenarios to 2050, with recommendations for the Ministry of the Armed Forces (III).

6 November 2024
Human security issues
Human security issues

Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations in Response to Climate-Related Disasters: What Role and Challenges for the French Armed Forces ?

This note analyses climate change impacts on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations carried out by the French armed forces in response to climate-related disasters. It is divided into three parts: climate change impacts on the evolution of HADR operations in France along with the operational and capability consequences for French armed forces (I), followed by an analysis of the use of HADR operations abroad as a lever for military influence and power by nations active in this field such as the United States, China, France, India and Australia (II). Finally, three foresight scenarios for 2050 are suggested along with recommendations for the Ministry of Armed forces (III).

21 June 2024
Defense issues
Defense issues

Solar Geoengineering: Geostrategic and Defence issues

Techniques and their recent developments highlight the prospect of large-scale deployment of solar geoengineering over the coming decades. It therefore seems necessary to explore the security and strategic issues raised by these techniques, which this note sets out to do in four stages: a presentation of the techniques studied and the associated natural and human risks (I); an analysis of the geostrategic and defence issues they raise (II); four hypotheses, and three prospective scenarios narrating the deployment of solar geoengineering techniques by 2050, together with recommendations for the Ministry of Defence (IV).

29 November 2023
Human security issues
Human security issues

Geopolitical and security implications of Climate vulnerability in the Carribbean Islands

This brief addresses the current and future consequences of climate changes in the insular Caribbean, as well as their geopolitical and security implications. In this perspective, we focus our analysis on the Caribbean arc, traditionally subdivided into two groups: the Greater Antilles, stretching from Cuba in the northwest to Puerto Rico; and the Lesser Antilles, from the Virgin Islands to the islands of Trinidad and Tobago, which border the Venezuelan coastline further south.

9 November 2022
Defense issues
Defense issues

Integration of climate-environmental issues by the armed forces

Whether in terms of anticipating risks or threats to national security, vulnerability of military infrastructure, adaptation of equipment and training to the effects of rising average temperatures or extreme conditions (Arctic), it is clear that the impacts of climate change pose many challenges to the maintenance and implementation of the military effect of armed forces.

23 March 2021
Human security issues
Human security issues

Southeast Asia foresight

This thirteenth study report by the Climate and Defense Observatory presents the elements collected on five countries in Southeast Asia: Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. It is organised around five country profiles, headed by a regional analysis highlighting vulnerabilities and cross-cutting challenges, commonalities and differences.

15 May 2020
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues
Research methodologies and tools
Human security issues

South Pacific

This eighth report of the Observatory presents the elements collected on Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. The five sheets propose, as far as possible, elements of assessment of climate vulnerability in prospective horizons, reflections on their possible translation into security terms, a brief analysis of public policies on climate, an evaluation of the role of the armed forces and civil security forces in the management of natural disasters, as well as crisis scenarios (trend and breakdown).

28 February 2019
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

Sahel foresight

This sixth report of the Observatory presents the elements collected on Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad. The five fact sheets provide elements for assessing climate vulnerability in the future, thoughts on how this might be translated into security terms, a brief analysis of public policies on climate, an assessment of the role of the armed forces and civil security forces in the management of natural disasters, as well as crisis scenarios (trend and breakdown).

15 May 2018
Research methodologies and tools
Research methodologies and tools

North Africa foresight

The first part of this report proposes a regional analysis of the main vulnerabilities to climate change, the potential breaking points, as well as the challenges and state responses. It then provides a country-by-country analysis of Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco.

15 January 2018